I’ve previously analyzed the sports where Canada has the strongest contenders for gold medals. But as punters know, equally important is the total medal count. And for that, you need to know which sports Canada is most likely to win any medals in (gold, silver, or bronze).
Here are my 2026 Milan Cortina Winter Olympic medal predictions for Canada, categorized by likelihood of a Canadian athlete reaching the podium in a particular sport.
Sports with very high medal potential
These are the sports Canada is almost certain to win medals in, due to any or a combination of these factors:
- Canada is by far and away the best in that sport (like hockey)
- There are a large number of medal events (meaning a higher probability of winning one or more medals)
- A Canadian athlete who is the undisputed best within a discipline will be competing in multiple medal events (e.g. Mikaël Kingsbury or William Dandjinou
Hockey
The men’s hockey team won the 4 Nations Face-off in 2025, with the winning overtime goal being scored by Connor McDavid, who is probably currently the world’s best hockey player. And with Sidney Crosby, a former two-time gold medallist, Nathan MacKinnon (current NHL MVP), and plenty of other star players going to Milan, all bets are on Canada to win gold.
The women’s team will be heading to the Olympics as the second-favourites. The final roster was announced on 9 January, but some pundits are calling it a silver medal team due to younger, faster players like Chloe Primerano and Micah Zandee-Hart being passed over in favour of more experienced players. Nevertheless, Team Canada has a strong chance at gold, and I would be very surprised if they didn’t at least finish with silver.
Freestyle skiing
Medals will almost certainly be flowing in for the freestyle ski team at Milano Cortina 2026. Mikaël Kingsbury very recently became the first athlete ever to hit 100 World Cup mogul wins and this year he will be competing in the new category of double moguls, meaning an extra chance to win. Reece Howden currently leads the 2025/2026 World Cup standings in Ski Cross, so he’s a lock for an Olympic medal.
In the women’s category, Marielle Thompson (Ski Cross), Cassie Sharpe (Halfpipe), and Rachel Karker (Halfpipe) are all Olympic medallists, while Megan Oldham and Elena Gaskell have brought home World Cup silver and bronze in Slopestyle recently.
Short track speed skating
Head coach Marc Gagnon is aiming for the short track team to beat its previous Salt Lake City 2002 record of 6 medals. It’s not a far-fetched goal. William Dandjinou will be making his Olympic debut as a five-time world championship medal winner and is strongly favourited as a gold medal contender. Steven Dubois and Kim Boutin, both Olympic medallists, also form part of Team Canada.
All in all, there are 21 skaters heading to Milan-Cortina, the max quota, which speaks to the strength of the Canadian team.
Sports with high medal potential
These two sports have high medal potential, but there’s a higher threshold of uncertainty involved.
- There are fewer chances of winning (in curling only three medals can be awarded, compared to freestyle skiing, where there are 15 chances to win a medal).
- Volatility is higher in snowboarding, where bad weather and judges’ impressions could sway the ranking of athletes even in their best form.
Curling
The women’s curling team is currently dominating in the curling world, with Rachel Homan leading a team with a 90%+ win rate. The men’s curling team, led by Brad Jacobs, is ranked in the top 3 globally and rated the second best in men’s curling by curlranked.com.
Both teams are contenders for gold, but I’m assigning the sport “high” medal potential rather than “very high” in large part because there are simply fewer medal events and therefore a smaller margin for error if either team is to reach the podium.
Snowboarding
Snowboarding has historically been a strong sport for Canada. The 24-year old Eliot Grondin is the one to watch in snowboard cross, having won gold in the 2025 World Championships and the 2025 World Cup. Elizabeth Hosking (halfpipe) also very recently won gold in the Jan 2026 World Cup in Calgary, so her latest performance points to high chances of a medal in Milan Cortina.
Snowboarding is in the “high” medal probability category because performance is more unpredictable than in other sports. A strong gust of wind could throw an athlete off, while scoring is also based on more subjective factors.
Sports with medium medal potential
Canada will be sending our best to these sporting events, but the medal potential is lower here because of the formidable competition, subjective scoring, less room for error, and fewer events where a medal can be won.
Figure skating
Deanna Stellato-Dudek and Maxime Deschamps are the Pairs World Champions from 2024 so Canada will be watching to see whether they’ll be able to reach the podium in pairs skating.
What makes a podium standing less certain in their case is that they’ll be competing against much younger skaters (Stellato-Dudek is 42, making her one of the oldest figure skaters in the field), and the competition is particularly strong from the US, China, and Japan. They also finished in last place in the Grand Prix Final in December 2025, so they’ve not had a straight run of stellar performances recently. Finally, a large part of the scoring is based on artistry and presentation, which can be highly subjective.
Skeleton
Hailie Clarke is the 21-year old skeleton prodigy who will almost certainly be one of the athletes representing Canada in the 2026 Winter Olympics. She’s the first person to simultaneously hold the junior and senior world championship titles, which she won in 2025 and 2024, respectively. However, she recently finished in 6th place at the Skeleton World Cup in December 2025, so a podium finish at the Winter Olympics is uncertain.
Skeleton is also one of the most difficult sports to predict, as small shifts in body weight can make or break a run in a competition which is measured to the 1/100th of a second. Also, there are only three medal events, lowering the overall probability of medalling.
