Alright, let’s talk about the heavy hitters. We’re breaking down the four national teams with the absolute best odds to lift the trophy this summer. They all have completely different formulas, but make no mistake: every single one of them has a legit shot to win it all on the night of July 19 in New York.
The favorites
We have to start with France. As a soccer nation, their youth development system has been operating at an elite level for years, creating an absolutely massive reservoir of world-class talent.
You’ve probably seen online the multiple starting lineups Didier Deschamps could deploy. The depth is absurd, even France’s fifth-choice lineup could easily compete with most starting teams in this tournament.
France
On paper, their attacking firepower is terrifying: Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise, Marcus Thuram, Doué, Rayan Cherki, and the list just goes on. But the million-dollar question is: can they actually play nice together?
That’s the ultimate red flag for France right now. The drama surrounding Kylian Mbappé completely eclipses Didier Deschamps’s final tournament as head coach. The Real Madrid superstar is coming off a brutal end to his club season, drowning in off-field controversy. Case in point: his wild weekend getaway to Cagliari with actress Ester Expósito while Real Madrid were playing and effectively losing the La Liga even before the Clásico, was not appreciated by his teammates and the Spanish public.
Meanwhile, back home in France, a pre-departure team photo with President Emmanuel Macron caused an absolute uproar. Mbappé positioned himself directly in front of Macron, partially blocking the President from view; a perceived snub that France’s elite found incredibly distasteful.
Right now, the star of the last two World Cups is under an absolute microscope. Every minor detail is amplified into a media circus: a missed high-five with N’Golo Kanté or a demanded captain’s armband upon subbing into a match instantly becomes front-page news.
Historically, France has a bad habit of imploding at the worst possible moment, and all the ingredients for a meltdown are currently on the table. Deschamps has to act as a glue from the start, as fixing things on the fly could prove as difficult as searching the needle in a haystack.
Spain
On the flip side, Spain doesn’t have an ego problem at all. They are reaping the rewards of an incredible youth development system under Luis de la Fuente. The reigning European Champion manager deservingly kept his job despite initial skepticism after replacing Luis Enrique.
De la Fuente made a historically bold statement by completely leaving Real Madrid players off his World Cup roster, a first in Spanish soccer history. Granted, there weren’t many eligible options anyway. The most notable snub was Dean Huijsen, who pettily took to Instagram to post his season’s average match rating in protest.
Beyond that roster drama, Spain’s questions are strictly about fitness and tactics. The biggest concern is Lamine Yamal’s match fitness after a muscle injury cut his season short. The same goes for Nico Williams, the breakout winger from the Euros two years ago. The Athletic Bilbao star endured a brutal second half of the season and lacks the momentum everyone expected. On the bright side, Barcelona’s Gavi is officially back in the midfield after missing the Euros with an ACL tear.
Argentina
Next up is Argentina, and yes, this is officially Lionel Messi’s final World Cup. Just saying that out loud feels wild. To add to the pressure, manager Lionel Scaloni admitted that a few of his key guys aren’t at 100% fitness right now.
Scaloni and his staff put together a roster that mixes old-school loyalty with a serious youth movement. On one side, he took care of the veterans who won it all three and a half years ago, bringing back guys like Gonzalo Montiel, Nicolás Tagliafico, and Germán Pezzella. On the other side, he made a cold move by leaving Paulo Dybala at home to make room for young stars Thiago Almada and Valentín Barco.
In the attack, Real Madrid’s Nico Paz surprisingly stole a roster spot from Franco Mastantuono, the kid who was hyped as the next big thing in Argentina but completely flopped in his first season in Madrid. Up front, the battle for the starting striker job is going to be a heavyweight fight. At the last World Cup, Julián Álvarez took over while Lautaro Martínez played through a brutal ankle injury. This time, both forwards are fully healthy and fighting for the job.
Argentina is also playing with some serious emotion right now. The country was just rocked by the death of “El Indio” Solari at age 77, the biggest rock star in Argentina’s history and a total icon alongside Diego Maradona.
Hours after he passed, a crazy audio message leaked that Solari had recently sent to Messi: “What if you win two World Cups in a row? You’re built for this, old man.” Just like that, the squad got its spark.
Brazil
Then we have Brazil. Of the top four, they seem to be starting slightly behind the pack, but fans will be watching them with absolute fascination due to Carlo Ancelotti commanding the technical area.
Ancelotti and his staff have openly stated that this Brazilian team will look drastically different from the historical squads we are used to seeing. This roster trades traditional Samba magic for a much more practical, “Europeanized” style. It is an incredibly fast, vertical team built to exploit space on the counter-attack and hunt for depth.
The biggest headache for Ancelotti over the last few months has been Neymar. A massive fan campaign in Brazil demanded his inclusion, and while he made the final roster, it triggered an immediate medical controversy. The Santos star picked up a calf issue in his final pre-tournament match. The club’s medical staff downplayed the injury, calling it minor swelling. However, secondary scans revealed a Grade 2 tear, meaning Neymar will almost certainly miss the highly anticipated opening match against Morocco.
Adding to Ancelotti’s tactical headaches is an injury to AS Roma outside back Wesley. This roster is notoriously thin at the outside back position compared to legendary Brazilian teams of the past. In a surprising twist, Ancelotti called up midfielder Éderson (who is currently closing in on a transfer to Manchester United) to replace him. Swapping an outside back for a midfielder means the coaching staff is betting on at least three of their rostered center-backs to successfully adapt to the flanks.
Bonus: Portugal
I have to add Portugal as my sleeper pick among the elite, mostly because they are flying completely under the radar right now—and frankly, I don’t get why.
This squad is loaded in every single department. They boast incredible outside backs, a terrifyingly deep midfield, and wingers who are absolute nightmares in 1-on-1 situations on the field. Furthermore, they have a proven backup for Cristiano Ronaldo in Gonçalo Ramos, who spent his season in Paris perfecting the art of being a lethal game-changer off the bench.
Just like Argentina’s Messi, this is Cristiano Ronaldo’s final World Cup. While the Portuguese locker room exhibits a bit less open, god-like worship toward Ronaldo compared to how Argentina treats Messi, the sheer athletic potential of this squad is staggering. Do not ignore on them.
