If there is one soccer match where, by definition, predicting the outcome is (if not impossible) incredibly complicated, it’s THE FINAL. Especially when it’s a Champions League match.
How many times in the tournament’s history have predictions and pre-match hype failed to pan out on the field? Just look at Milan in Istanbul, Juventus against Dortmund, or Chelsea against Bayern. The books are full of underdog examples.
Arsenal vs. Paris Saint-Germain: A done deal?
Once again, the predictions tilt quite clearly in one direction, that of PSG, for a variety of reasons.
Beyond the experience that comes with having already won it all (twice for Luis Enrique), the advantage on the field favors PSG primarily because of their attacking output, especially in this final stretch of the season.
From the round of 16 to the final, Arsenal managed to score multiple goals just once. Not only that: from April until now in the Premier League, the Gunners have consistently scored a maximum of one goal per game, with just one exception, a 3-0 win against Fulham.
On the other side, PSG boasts the best offense in the Champions League with 44 goals, averaging 2.75 per match. The stat is impressive, even when looking at individual scorelines: the reigning champions have scored at least four goals on five different occasions.
The calculated rotation…
When comparing the two sides, total minutes played this season tell a massive story. Luis Enrique’s squad rotation has been almost scientific: take Dembélé, who, despite early-season injury struggles, walked away with the Ligue 1 Player of the Year award while starting just nine matches.
This season, the French side have only one player who has played more than 4,000 minutes, Zaïre-Emery, who forced his way back into Luis Enrique’s starting lineup this year after fading into the background a bit last season.
Arteta, on the other hand, has 5 players who have played over 4,000 minutes, and physical brilliance has been an important and evident theme even in the Gunners’ season final, who have spent a lot to return to champions after more than 20 years.
…and the set-piece factor
Arsenal has a lethal weapon in its back pocket: set pieces, which can often make all the difference in matches like this. Ironically called “Set-Piece Football Club” by some in England, the Gunners scored 28 goals this year in the league alone using these tactics, 41% of the total!
Of those 28 goals, 17 came strictly from corner kicks, setting an all-time Premier League record. This is exactly why Luis Enrique had goalkeeper Matvey Safonov and his defenders training with tackling dummies, typical of rugby and football.
Finally, there’s a curious twist: the last time Arsenal reached the final was exactly 20 years ago, on May 17, 2006, exactly 20 years before the Gunners became champions of England again.
Arsenal, led by Thierry Henry, lost that final to Barcelona after going down to 10 men due to Jens Lehmann’s red card. Oh, and do we happen to remember where that match was played? Yes, Paris.
My prediction
In light of all this, I see PSG cruising to a victory by at least two goals.
One thing is certain: a Spanish manager will lift the trophy, just like Unai Emery did in the Europa League, and just like Iñigo Pérez could do with Rayo Vallecano in the Conference League, completing an extraordinary Spanish sweep.
