Making sense of Red Bull’s Lawson-Tsunoda swap

Red Bull is notorious for being the most ruthless Formula 1 team, with a long history of making dramatic and cutthroat driver decisions.

But the team has outdone itself, announcing its decision to demote Liam Lawson and replace him with Yuki Tsunoda just two races into the season.

Lawson will drop back down to Racing Bulls, Red Bull’s junior team, from the Japanese Grand Prix (April 4th-6th). Tsunoda will finally jump up to the main outfit and partner reigning four-time world champion Max Verstappen.

So why did Red Bull make such a bold decision mere months after anointing Lawson the answer to its second seat? Let’s dive in.

So how bad were Lawson’s first two races?

Red Bull team principal Christian Horner called the swap “a purely sporting decision,” citing a desire to compete for both titles this season. He added the team had “a duty of care” toward Lawson.

Lawson replaced Sergio Perez, whose struggles in 2024 were so bad that Red Bull paid him out to open up its second seat.

The 21-year-old wasn’t expected to challenge Verstappen. However, the assumption from Red Bull was that Lawson would be a clear improvement on Perez, who cost the team a chance at retaining the Constructors’ Championship.

It was a fair assumption. Lawson raced in 11 Grand Prix as a stand-in driver at Racing Bulls over the last two years and performed solidly. He was lauded for his mental fortitude and confidence, something needed when facing Verstappen.

Lawson scored a point in just his third race after famously making Q3 by knocking out Verstappen. He was also mostly a match for Tsunoda after replacing Daniel Ricciardo for 2024’s final six races.

But Lawson hasn’t just struggled in 2025, he’s been arguably the worst-performing driver on the grid. Here are his results so far:

Lawson qualified last on the grid in two of three sessions. For comparison, Verstappen hasn’t qualified lower than fourth. Even more damning, the Racing Bulls duo of Tsunoda (three) and Isack Hadjar (one) have four top-10 qualifying performances between them.

Even Lawson’s best result, 12th in the Chinese GP, looks better on paper than it was. Lawson was 16th across the line but jumped up thanks to post-race disqualifications and penalties.

But surely just two races isn’t fair on Lawson?

Like I said, historically, Red Bull won’t hesitate to kick out underperforming drivers. But most were given at least double-digit races to make their case. Dropping Lawson after just two races is brutal, even for Red Bull.

Australia was a rain-affected race, and Lawson missed crucial practice time due to engine issues. He crashed out of the race but so did a lot of drivers, including a multiple-time race winner (Carlos Sainz) and a two-time champion (Fernando Alonso).

Furthermore, the Chinese GP was a sprint weekend, meaning Lawson only had one practice session to get to grips with the car. He also hadn’t previously driven at either track during his junior career.

So while Lawson’s results were undeniably bad, it’s fair to say he didn’t get a clean shot at marking his mark.

Part of the suspected reasoning is that the Japanese GP marks the start of a tripleheader of races. If Red Bull didn’t make a move now, it likely wouldn’t have the chance until after the fifth Grand Prix weekend.

As Horner said, Red Bull isn’t giving up on the Constructors’ Championship. But they’re already in third place, 42 points adrift of McLaren. Red Bull can’t afford more races with only Verstappen scoring points.

Is Tsunoda the answer to Red Bull’s second seat woes?

Well, Red Bull didn’t think so three months ago. The team passed over Tsunoda in favor of Lawson in December despite a strong fourth F1 campaign.

Tsuonoda’s place with the team was partially due to his backing from engine partner Honda. As a result, Red Bull — and Horner in particular — never seemed interested in promoting the temperamental youngster.

But Tsunoda’s impressive form has carried into this season. He has qualified in the top 10 three times. If not for strategy blunders by the team like opting for a two-stop race in China, he likely would have secured points-scoring positions in both Grand Prix so far.

After his struggles early in his career facing Pierre Gasly, Tsunoda has come out on top against Lawson, Ricciardo, and Nick de Vries.

But Tsunoda is facing an uphill battle at Red Bull. Not only will he be judged against teammate-killer Verstappen, but he’ll be driving a car that’s fallen far from its 2023 dominance.

Part of the reason for Lawson’s struggles is that the RB21 is a very difficult car to handle and is designed for Verstappen’s love of high front-end sensitivity. Tsunoda will have to step in without an offseason of testing to get acclimatized. He also has the pressure of debuting in his home race.

So Lawson isn’t the first Red Bull driver to get a quick axe?

Far from it. While none have seen such a short stint as Lawson, Red Bull goes through drivers like no other team. Verstappen has been a constant since 2016, but Tsunoda will be his sixth teammate.

How does the swap affect Verstappen?

Verstappen is in the unfamiliar position of being on the back foot in a championship fight. As he looks to become only the second driver to win five straight Drivers’ Championships, Verstappen is in a car that’s clearly inferior to McLaren.

While McLaren was also the better car for the second half of 2024, Verstappen managed to build up enough of a points gap to Lando Norris in the first half that he could fight off Norris’ challenge from a position of strength.

But Norris and McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri look a cut above Verstappen after splitting the first two Grand Prix wins of the season, based on data from F1pace.com.

• Verstappen’s overall race-pace deficit to winner Norris in the Australian GP — 0.63 seconds per lap (third overall).
• Verstappen’s overall race-pace deficit to winner Lewis Hamilton in the Chinese sprint — 0.5 seconds per lap (fifth overall).
• Verstappen’s overall race-pace deficit to winner Piastri in the Chinese GP — 0.26 seconds per lap (fifth overall).

Red Bull has said it hopes to close the gap to McLaren within five races. But until then, it is damage limitations for Verstappen. It’s been a good start in that regard for Verstappen, who sits only eight points off Norris thanks to his remarkable consistency.

Red Bull will hope Tsunoda can not only score vital points in the Constructors’ Championship, but also be a rear-gunner for Verstappen, getting into the mix with the other top teams and taking points off his championship rivals when the chance arises.