2024 Presidential election odds — Overview

Betting on politics is popular abroad, but is not legal in the US yet. However, we’ve gathered full lists of 2024 election odds from popular betting sites around the globe.

Our ultra-comprehensive list covers everything from the frontrunners to the longest shots, giving you a comparative overview of all the candidates’ presidential election odds, as well as some popular figures from outside of politics.

The rest of the page breaks down individual categories and highlights interesting insights into the odds of the 2024 election race.

Latest election odds, updates, and recent movement

One of the latest 2024 presidential election odds updates happened in the wake of August 24. The odds landscape saw a seismic shift following Donald Trump’s legal troubles in Georgia, where he faces charges related to his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election, with his base rallying around him.

Joe Biden remains the Democratic frontrunner, but the spotlight is shared with California Governer Gavin Newsom, and Robert Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.), a vaccine skeptic who’s recently surged ahead of Ron DeSantis in most odds races.

DeSantis, once seen as a formidable contender within the Republican party, has seen his odds diminish in recent months. Public clashes with Disney and social media spats with Trump have likely contributed to his decline.

Meanwhile, pharmaceutical entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s energetic approach and debate success have garnered attention among the Republican base, further complicating the odds race. While DeSantis still holds a lead by most counts, Ramaswamy has managed to erode some of his support.

Current average odds (rounded to nearest whole number):

• Joe Biden — +112 
• Donald Trump — +229
• Gavin Newsom — +1100
• Ron DeSantis — +1633
• Vivek Ramaswamy — +1633
• Robert Kennedy Jr — +2033

Donald Trump’s presidential odds in 2024

Donald Trump’s chances to win average out to about +229, where they hovered at about +270 before his recent arrest and the publication of his iconic mugshot.

The increased odds imply that the 45th president’s supporters have rallied around him in a show of support as he faces a busy year, balancing his campaigning against his legal challenges.

A $10 bet on his chances at each of the sportsbooks we’re drawing data from would win as follows:

Joe Biden’s chances for re-election

Donald Trump isn’t the only one facing hearings, and he’s not the only one whose ratings have benefitted from it. According to Reuters, Biden’s approval rating in September climbed to the highest its been since March, in the wake of impeachment proceedings opened against him by the Republican party. [1]

Despite the recent uptick, his approval ratings still hover at approximately 42%. While most data available suggests Biden has a slim lead in the presidential election odds, it’s interesting to note that Bet365 is holding Biden and Trump on equal footing, despite Caesars giving Biden a much bigger edge.

Betting $10 at each of the sportsbooks we’ve highlighted for the 2024 election odds would return as follows:

Party nominee odds — Who will lead the parties?

The presidential candidates from last election remain the favorites to lead the parties. Both are one-term presidents eligible for their second run at the White House.

Their respective vice-presidents, Kamala Harris and Mike Pence, are not seen as the highest-profile contenders for the presidents’ spots in the 2024 election odds.

Harris is only in fourth place for the Democrats, with nominee election odds of +900, while Pence’s public fallout with his old boss has sunk him all the way down to ninth place, with odds of +6600, an abysmal implied win probability of 1.49%.

The second-favorites are Florida governor DeSantis for the Republicans, with odds of +550, and California governor Newsom for the Democrats, with odds of +500.

Democratic nominee odds

Biden is certainly the frontrunner here, with California governor Gavin Newsom having the second-best election odds, and Biden’s vice-president Kamala Harris in fourth place, amid speculation that Michelle Obama will also announce a candidacy.

The former First Lady currently holds the third-best presidential election odds among the Democrats’ potential candidates, at +650. Donald Trump’s first campaign opponent, Hilary Clinton, remains in seventh place with odds of +2800.

Republican nominee odds

The Republican nominees in the upcoming U.S. presidential election offer a few surprises. At the forefront of the race is former President Donald Trump, with odds of -275, suggesting he is the frontrunner. Following closely is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, with odds of +550, positioning him as the main contender. Despite this, DeSantis’s popularity has recently waned.

One notable longshot from outside the political sphere is Tucker Carlson, previously of Fox News, with longshot odds of +8000. The television host departed Fox in April and has since hosted a web show on social media site X, formerly known as Twitter.

Winning party election odds

US election odds from multiple sportsbooks reveal a tight contest between the Democratic and Republican parties, with Democrats holding a slight edge in the 2024 presidential election odds at -115 and -111 in Bet365 and BetMGM.

Meanwhile, Republicans are not far behind at -105. Caesars offers slightly different odds, favoring Democrats at -140 but giving Republicans more favorable odds at +110. In contrast, independent candidates are long shots, with odds ranging from +2500 to +3300.

Overall, the odds suggest a closely contested battle between the major parties, with a significant gap in US election odds for an independent candidate to win.

Popular vote winner odds

The U.S. presidential popular vote represents the total number of individual votes cast for each candidate. While it reflects the collective choice of American voters, the presidential winner is ultimately determined by the Electoral College.

Each state and the District of Columbia assign electors to the winning candidate, and a majority of 270 out of 538 electoral votes is needed to secure the presidency.

As the popular vote is less impactful on the final result than the Electoral College vote, it’s understandably less represented in the 2024 election odds, with only Caesars running bets on it at this stage.

Vice-presidential nominee odds

The sportsbooks we monitor for the 2024 election odds are only running bets on the Republican vice-presidential candidacy at the moment. However, it seems to be one of the most hotly-contested races in the election sphere at the moment.

There is no clear favorite, with South Carolina junior United States senator Tim Scott and presidential hopeful Ramaswamy tied with odds of +350, with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem not far behind at +500.

With Biden still being favored to take the Democratic presidential nomination by most sportsbooks, there’s no reason to believe that anyone other than current VP Kamala Harris will end up holding the number two position.

Long-shot candidate odds

2024 Presidential long shot odds represent the chances of less-conventional candidates winning the US presidential election. Longshots can encompass a diverse range of individuals, including both political figures and those with no prior political background.

One such political long shot candidate is Stacey Abrams, known for her advocacy of voting rights and her narrow loss in Georgia’s 2018 race. With presidential election odds of +10000 across the board, Abrams faces steep competition if she hopes to be nominated.

On the other hand, Mark Cuban, a billionaire entrepreneur and television personality, represents a non-political long shot. While not a traditional political figure, Cuban’s presence in the betting odds are a testament to his fame, business acumen, and outspoken views, which could make him an intriguing outsider candidate.

Another non-political long shot is Joe Rogan, the popular podcast host known for his interviews with diverse guests. With 2024 presidential election odds of +25000, Rogan’s potential candidacy represents the evolving landscape of presidential campaigns, where media influence and public engagement play significant roles.

Can Trump run for president in 2024?

Yes, he absolutely can. There is no legal restriction in the U.S. Constitution preventing someone under indictment or convicted of a crime from running for or winning the presidency. Donald Trump has faced multiple legal challenges and indictments, but none of these legal issues disqualify him from running for president in 2024

However, Donald Trump’s legal complications could play a pivotal role in shaping betting odds for his potential 2024 presidential election campaign. While there are no real barriers to his candidacy, the uncertainty surrounding his legal troubles may lead to fluctuating odds.

Trump’s ability to frame legal challenges as political persecution and use them to rally financial support from his base could also sway betting dynamics. The timing of his trials, coinciding with his campaign schedule, further complicate things. A conviction during the campaign could drastically shift odds both for or against him, while avoiding convictions could make him a more favorable bet.

In essence, Trump’s legal situation introduces significant volatility into the betting landscape, with ongoing developments in his cases and fundraising prowess likely influencing how bookmakers set odds for his 2024 presidential candidacy.

FAQs

Sources

1. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/
2. https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-indictment-2024-elections-b2412304.html
3. https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/electoral-college-ratings-expect-another-highly-competitive-election/